I was wrong about Indiana, Miami is back and recruiting stars don’t matter in Mandel’s Mailbag
I was wrong about Indiana, and that's okay. But here's where it gets interesting: Miami is back, and it's not just about recruiting stars anymore. Let's dive into the latest in Mandel's Mailbag, where we explore the implications of Curt Cignetti's talent evaluation and roster construction, and the rise of Miami in college football.
The Recruiting Revolution
Curt Cignetti has disrupted the recruiting evaluation industry. He's exposed the flaws in the system, where star ratings often don't reflect the true potential of players. Take Indiana's D'Angelo Ponds, who had only one P5 offer from Syracuse when he committed to Cignetti at James Madison. Despite initial doubts, Ponds proved his worth, earning Freshman All-America honors and ranking 11th nationally in passes defended. But when he entered the portal, he was still ranked behind 83 other cornerbacks, including Denver Harris, a former five-star player who struggled at Texas A&M and LSU.
Cignetti's approach is different. He targets players who have proven themselves at mid-level P4 schools or G5 schools, like Cal's Fernando Mendoza, Maryland's Roman Hemby, JMU's Ponds and Sarratt, and Kent State's Stephen Daley. These players are counted simplistically as 'not four stars,' but they bring depth and talent to the team.
Miami's Rise
The story of Miami's resurgence is a testament to the power of strategic talent evaluation. After years of doubt, the program is back in the national conversation. It all started with a scathing ESPN analyst rant in 2021, calling out the lack of commitment to football. The administration responded by investing in the program, upgrading facilities, and offering lucrative NIL deals.
Miami boosters embraced NIL, attracting stars like Cam Ward and Carson Beck, who turned down the NFL for big checks. The program's success is evident in the key roles played by South Florida high school kids like Rueben Bain, Mark Fletcher, and Malachi Toney. With resources and a winning culture, Miami is poised to remain a title contender.
NIL Deals and Stability
The NIL landscape is evolving, with schools like Washington and Wisconsin claiming these contracts are agreements to license athlete NIL rights. However, the Big Ten's rev-share model, which includes liquidated damages clauses, provides stability. The Demond Williams saga is a case in point, where the university's threat to demand the full contract value deterred Williams from leaving.
CFP Expansion
The College Football Playoff (CFP) expansion is a topic of debate. While 12 teams remain the favorite, the commissioners' differing visions for the playoff format could lead to change. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey supports a 16-team field, while Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti favors a 24-team model. The commissioners' inability to agree on a format could impact the playoff's future.
Marketing the CFP
The CFP's late scheduling of the last two rounds of games is a concern for marketing. The viewership drop from the quarterfinals to the semifinals and title game highlights the issue. Moving the regular season earlier and the CFP earlier in the year could reduce the overlap with the NFL playoffs and improve the CFP's marketing.
Oregon's Playoff Struggles
Dan Lanning, Oregon's coach, has faced challenges in the CFP. The team's losses to Ohio State and Indiana, despite being favored, raise questions about Lanning's ability to win 'the big one.' However, Lanning has built Oregon into a top program, and his success against other Top 10 teams, including a shutout of Texas Tech, showcases his coaching prowess.
Cignetti's Smile
If Indiana wins the national championship, expect an unfiltered Cignetti. His smile will be genuine, and he'll celebrate the victory with his team. Mandel concludes by reflecting on his past predictions, including a satirical game story about a Texas vs. Stony Brook national championship in 2024, and thanks readers for their engagement.
